2025 global economic update and mid-year outlook

Released on 5 June 2025

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Welcome to your mid-year outlook for the global economy in 2025.

More than 10 major economies saw downward revisions to growth projections for the year based on our latest data. Higher tariffs, policy uncertainty and persisting trade tensions continue to threaten market stability.

You’ll find updated real GDP growth forecasts, inflation estimates and scenario analysis in this report, so you can prepare for shifts. Use these insights to inform strategic decisions and resource allocation.

What’s inside?

  • Two new scenarios that simulate an escalation or rollback of US tariffs—Trump Total Agenda and Trump Tariff Easing
  • GDP growth projections, inflation forecasts and top risks
  • Fastest- and slowest-growing countries in 2025
  • Outlook for major economies—US, China and Eurozone 

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